Blog
Writing on technical projects, travel, and the occasional personal pivot.
Prediction marketsMay 20, 202618 min readLearning a Mixture of Heterogeneous Experts for Multi-Horizon Price Movement on Regulated Prediction-Market Trades
A chronological account: binary JumpCNN baselines on minute bars, a pivot to train-thresholded ternary targets, diverse sequence and tabular experts, and a gated mixture motivated by classical MoE theory—with held-out metrics that respect severe class imbalance.
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Essay
March 7, 20266 min readOn Pivoting Toward What Actually Excites Me
Coming from Ostia without a map, following the visible path in econ, then the shift toward machine learning — and finally asking what actually excites me.
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